Written by Nathaniel Brooks.
Billionaire Elon Musk jumped into the fray this week, hosting Wisconsin Supreme Court hopeful Brad Schimel and Senator Ron Johnson on X to hash out why the April 1, 2025, election could make or break the state’s political future. It’s not just a local race—it’s a linchpin for the GOP’s grip on Congress, and Musk’s all in.
The Election’s Big Picture
Come April 1, Wisconsinites will pick between Schimel, a conservative, and Susan Crawford, a liberal judge, to replace retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. The court’s current 4-3 progressive lean hangs in the balance. Musk laid it out plain during the X chat: if Crawford wins, the liberal majority might greenlight new congressional maps, slashing the GOP’s 6-2 U.S. House edge by at least two seats. With the House majority already tight as a drum, that could flip the chamber to Democrats by 2026.
Why does this hit home? Picture a truck driver in Kenosha—his vote helped secure that Republican edge. A redrawn map might dilute his say, shifting power to urban hubs. Musk called it “the most consequential” issue, arguing that a Democratic redraw could tip national policy on everything from taxes to trade. The court’s next move on a pending lawsuit against the current map will decide if that fear holds water.
Musk’s Money and Presler’s Muscle
Musk isn’t just talking a big game—he’s bankrolling it. His America PAC, tied to Trump’s 2024 win, is pumping $1 million into Schimel’s ground efforts—think door-knocking and voter drives. Another group he backs, Building America’s Future, shelled out $1.5 million for ads pushing the conservative. That’s $2.5 million from Musk alone, a hefty sum for a judicial race, but peanuts compared to the $51 million slugfest of 2023. This time, spending could climb past $100 million, dwarfing most Senate contests.
Then there’s Scott Presler, the voter turnout wizard who flipped Pennsylvania red last year. He’s sounding the alarm—lose this, and it’s 2023 all over again, when liberal Janet Protasiewicz crushed conservative Dan Kelly. Presler’s headed to Wisconsin for two weeks, rallying Trump voters to show up early. “This is about the House, not just the court,” he told a reporter, blunt as ever. His track record—registering thousands—gives the GOP hope Schimel can pull it off.
The duo’s strategy hinges on turnout. Presler’s betting the Trump wave from 2024 still has legs. Musk, meanwhile, sees Schimel as a firewall against what he calls Democratic “gerrymandering.” Together, they’re turning a sleepy judicial race into a national slugfest.
Redistricting on the Line
The real prize here is Wisconsin’s congressional map. Drawn post-2020, it hands Republicans six of eight House seats, even though the state splits nearly even between parties. Critics—like the folks at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project—say it’s rigged, giving the GOP an unfair leg up. Democrats have a lawsuit queued up, itching for the court to toss it. If Crawford wins, a liberal majority could do just that, redrawing lines to favor their side.
Two districts stand out: Bryan Steil’s 1st in the southeast and Derrick Van Orden’s 3rd in the west. Both are GOP-held but winnable for Democrats under new boundaries. Steil’s been solid since 2018, Van Orden’s newer, squeaking by in 2022. Lose those, and the House flips—Musk’s nightmare scenario. For a dairy farmer in La Crosse, that might mean less clout in D.C. on farm subsidies. The court’s power to settle this isn’t new; in 2023, it axed GOP legislative maps, proving it’s no bystander.
Wisconsin’s setup amplifies the stakes. A Democratic governor butts heads with a Republican legislature, leaving the Supreme Court as the referee. It’s ruled on voting laws, abortion, and more—hot issues that hit voters where they live. A Schimel win could lock in conservative priorities; Crawford’s would keep the progressive streak alive.
Our Take
This Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a pressure cooker, and Musk’s cash and Presler’s hustle are cranking up the heat. Schimel’s shot at flipping the court could cement GOP control in Congress, while a Crawford victory might hand Democrats a rare chance to redraw the gameboard. The money pouring in—millions already, with more likely—shows how a state election can ripple nationwide. It’s a brutal reminder that even judicial races aren’t immune to partisan warfare.
