Written by David Foster.

Retired Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz has forecasted that New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will aim to make a significant statement when sentencing former President Donald Trump next month. Following his conviction by a Manhattan jury on May 30 for falsifying business records, Trump faces an uncertain legal future.

Dershowitz believes Justice Merchan will likely impose more than a nominal fine. Instead, he anticipates a sentence designed to withstand appeals, ensuring it is not easily overturned. “I think a very likely outcome would be the judge sentences him to a number of years in prison—two years, three years,” Dershowitz stated on his YouTube channel. However, he suspects that Justice Merchan might suspend the sentence, considering Trump’s status as a leading presidential candidate.

Considering the Political Landscape

Another possible scenario, according to Dershowitz, could involve sentencing Trump to several years in prison but delaying his surrender until after the election, irrespective of the outcome. “I don’t think he’s going to do that,” Dershowitz said, noting that such a decision would likely be overturned by a higher court.

Dershowitz pointed out that this case is unprecedented, as no one has previously been imprisoned for falsifying business records in similar circumstances. “There is no precedent for jail” in Trump’s situation, he emphasized. This lack of precedent adds complexity to predicting the sentencing outcome.

Probation as an Unusual Sentence

Dershowitz also speculated that Trump might receive a probation sentence lasting “five years.” This would make Trump the first president to serve while on probation. “He’d have to report periodically to his probation officer” as president, Dershowitz explained. This scenario, while unconventional, highlights the unique nature of Trump’s legal challenges and the potential impacts on his political career.

Our Take

The potential sentencing of Donald Trump reflects a broader trend of legal actions intersecting with political careers. While Dershowitz’s predictions range from prison time to probation, each scenario underscores the unprecedented nature of Trump’s case. The legal system must navigate these complexities carefully to ensure fairness and uphold the rule of law. The implications for public trust in both the judiciary and the political process are significant, warranting close attention as this case progresses.

“[Judge Merchan] doesn’t want the sentence to help Trump become elected. This has nothing to do with justice or fairness. Merchan is a get Trump judge.”

— Alan Dershowitz@AlanDersh @RobFinnertyUSA pic.twitter.com/cFmVJWQkpT

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) June 4, 2024