Written by Jonathan Wright.
A recent polling memo from BlueLabs Analytics is making waves among Democratic officials. The memo, shared by political analyst JMart, highlights a growing push to persuade President Joe Biden to step aside to avoid a potentially disastrous loss to Donald Trump in the upcoming election. This detailed polling, which includes interviews with over 15,000 voters in seven key battleground states, presents some compelling data.
The findings show that alternative Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden by an average of three points in these critical states. Every tested Democrat, including Vice President Kamala Harris, performs better than Biden, though Harris still trails behind the average alternative. Some gains come from winning over undecided voters and those who previously supported third-party candidates. Interestingly, these alternative candidates are also siphoning votes from Trump while maintaining solid support from the Democratic base.
Voters are signaling a desire for fresh leadership, with those closely tied to the current administration faring worse. This data provides a strong argument for selecting a new Democratic nominee, independent of the incumbent administration, to stand the best chance against Trump.
Potential Democratic Alternatives
Prominent potential candidates include Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. These four consistently outpace Biden by roughly five points across battleground states, according to the memo. The findings align with the views of strategists like James Carville, who argue that rallying around Harris without question could be as misguided as the initial support for Biden’s re-election.
This faction of the #DumpBiden movement is advocating for an open process to find the best candidate, emphasizing that nearly twice as many voters prefer delegates to choose the most suitable candidate over simply selecting the next in line. Despite this growing pressure, Biden maintains his stance of not stepping aside.
Efforts to encourage Biden’s withdrawal continue quietly. A Democratic lawmaker noted that recent events, like the shooting, have temporarily benefited Biden’s strategy to run out the clock, preventing members from publicly voicing their concerns. However, the push to replace him is expected to intensify after the Republican convention concludes.
GOP’s Unity and Internal Struggles
The Republican Party has exhibited remarkable unity in Milwaukee, particularly following Saturday’s assassination attempt, which temporarily bonded its factions. Yet, beneath this façade, significant tensions persist. The ongoing clash between the old Republican Party and Trump’s insurgency continues to shape the party’s evolution.
Trump’s choice of Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate has reignited the most passionate internal disputes within the GOP. Vance, known for his hardline anti-interventionist stance, has alarmed many within the party. Representative Ken Calvert, overseeing military spending, reportedly remarked that the Ukrainians “better hurry up and win,” reflecting the unease among traditionalists. Other influential Republicans have expressed similar fears, with some plotting to counter Vance’s influence by ensuring their own allies populate key positions in a potential second Trump administration.
Behind the Scenes at the Convention
Amid the convention’s public displays of unity, the internal changes and evolving dynamics within the Republican Party are evident. The party is increasingly embracing economic populism at home and isolationism abroad, shifting its long-held positions on issues like abortion, and becoming more hostile towards certain business interests.
Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, noted these shifts, describing them as a “full-on frontal assault” on traditional party values. Short pointed out the party’s departure from issues like traditional marriage and life, its embrace of tariffs, and speakers blaming NATO for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine while criticizing corporate entities as “corporate pigs.”
This shift signifies a substantial transformation within the Republican Party, which some members view as a departure from core principles, raising concerns about its future direction and potential success.
Our Take
The data from BlueLabs Analytics underscores a critical need for the Democratic Party to reassess its strategy. With alternative candidates outperforming Biden and voters expressing a clear desire for fresh leadership, clinging to the current administration could lead to a significant electoral defeat. Ignoring these signs and rallying around an underperforming candidate risks alienating voters and diminishing the party’s chances against a formidable opponent like Trump.
Similarly, the internal struggles within the GOP highlight the complexities of its evolution. The tension between traditional values and new populist elements could create further divisions, impacting the party’s unity and effectiveness. Both parties face pivotal moments that will shape their futures and, by extension, the political landscape of the country.
