Written by Michael Thompson.

In a move that’s sure to revive your grandparents’ fond memories of Vietnam-era draft cards, the U.S. military is laying the groundwork to bring back conscription. Yes, folks, you read that right—our armed forces are contemplating a return to the good old days of mandatory service, spurred by the ominous threat of World War III looming on the horizon.

The latest edition of the U.S. Army War College’s academic journal suggests that, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as a backdrop, large-scale combat operations might demand a rethink of our all-volunteer force from the 1970s and 1980s. The report indicates that every day in a significant conflict could result in 3,600 casualties, requiring 800 fresh recruits daily. That’s a staggering number, especially when you consider that in 20 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, we sustained 50,000 casualties—a number we could hit in just two weeks of intense warfare.

The military is already struggling with recruitment. Last year, the Army missed its goal by 15,000 soldiers and is on track to be short another 20,000 this year. To make matters worse, the Individual Ready Reserve, a pool of former service members who can be called back to duty, has dwindled from 700,000 in 1973 to a mere 76,000 today. So, dust off those bell-bottoms and peace signs, because we might be heading back to the draft era.

From Hybrid Warfare to Old-School Battles

Before the Ukraine conflict, military planners were enamored with the idea of “hybrid warfare.” This concept suggested that massive state armies clashing on battlefields was as outdated as cavalry charges. Instead, they believed modern warfare would involve proxy fights and special operations, akin to the last two decades of skirmishes with non-state actors in places like Afghanistan. However, realist scholar Patrick Porter has pointed out the fallacy of this theory, given the resurgence of industrial wars of attrition.

As military strategists wake up from their dreams of high-tech, low-footprint conflicts, they’re realizing that traditional wars still require vast numbers of troops. Ukraine’s struggle to maintain its forces through draconian conscription measures, despite facing attrition rates of 80 to 90 percent, serves as a stark reminder of this reality. The U.S. military, it seems, is now preparing for a similar scenario, contemplating the necessity of forcing young Americans into service.

The idea of reinstating the draft is alarming, especially considering America’s history of engaging in wars that achieve little beyond empowering our enemies and wasting resources. The implicit assumption in the Army War College’s report—that we would face an enemy inflicting 3,600 casualties a day—points to a grim future. While a war with China in the Pacific would largely involve naval and air forces, a conflict with Russia would likely demand a conscripted army thrown into a grinding war of attrition.

Do We Really Need a Standing Army?

While manpower shortages are a real concern for countries like Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, the U.S. is fortunate not to face any compelling national interest necessitating an industrial war of attrition in Eastern Europe. Our entanglement in such conflicts stems from alliances like NATO and our leaders’ crusades for democracy or other trendy ideologies.

The U.S. enjoys unparalleled security as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere. With the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans serving as natural barriers, no foreign state can project military force onto our shores. Our neighbors are relatively weak and friendly, eliminating the need for an industrial land war at home. Any such conflict would see our army deployed as an expeditionary force in distant lands, where we have no pressing defensive need.

Historically, the U.S. has been warned against the dangers of entangling alliances and maintaining a standing army. The best solution to our military recruitment crisis might be to abolish the standing army altogether and avoid planning for costly, pointless wars on the other side of the planet. Such conflicts would drain trillions of dollars and result in countless Americans being killed, maimed, or traumatized.

Our Take

Reintroducing the draft? Sounds like a plan straight out of the “how to make America hate you” playbook. Just when you thought it was safe to enjoy your civilian life, the military decides to drag us back to the 1970s. While some might see this as a necessary evil, it’s clear that forcing young people into service for wars that serve no clear national interest is a terrible idea. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail before we’re all digging out our old draft cards.